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February 15-16, 2020

Guide To Playing The “Bounce-Back On Several Games Saturday
Two Teams Strongly Meet Requirements For Bounce-Back Bets

By Kelso Sturgeon

I am heading into this weekend in good standing, having won my last three big game plays (25-50 unit bets) and on a 7-2 run with my Best Bets Basketball Club Releases. The Saturday and Sunday schedules are as attractive for bettors as I have seen this season and I intend to keep right on winning. The winning edges are there in at least 30 games and these contests have set the stage for a giant winning weekend.

Also, in this newsletter an inventory of teams that meet all the requirements to qualify as strong candidates to win. That does not mean all of them will, but bettors have an edge with all of them. There also is a conference-by-conference list of teams that are battling for championships and can be expected to go all in in their games.’

It also is of note, newsletter best bets went 3-1-1 last Saturday, winning with LSU, Creighton and San Diego State, getting a push with Louisville and losing with Arkansas. There are five more best bets in this newsletter and hopefully the winning will continue.

CURRENT RECORDS IN MY THREE SERVICES

BEST BETS BASKETBALL CLUB ON 7-2 RUN
2/13…15 Units…Georgia State (-6) 76, Appalachian State 65 (Won)
2/13…15 Units…USC (-3.5) 62, Washington 56 Won)
2/12…15 Units…Creighton (+6) 87, Seton Hall 82 (Won)
2/12…15 Units…Tulsa (-11) 70, east Carolina 56 (Won)
2/12…15 Units…Louisville (-5.5) 58, Georgia Tech 64 (Lost)
2/11…15 Units…Illinois (+2) 69, Michigan State 70 (Won)
2/11…15 Units…Colorado State (+2.5) 72, Utah State 75 (Lost)
2/10…15 Units…Florida State (+8.5) 65, Duke 70 (Won)
2/10…15 Units…Baylor (-6) 52, Texas 45 (Won)

PERSONAL BEST-CHAIRMAN’S CLUB CURRENT WINNERS
2/13…25 Units…Montana (-8) 72, Weber State 37 (Won)
2/12…50 Units…Oklahoma (-10) 90, Iowa State 61 (Won)
2/11…25 Units…San Diego State (-15.5) 82, New Mexico 59 (Won)

STRONG BOUNCE-BACK WINNERS FOR SATURDAY

It is no secret I am a strong believer in the bounce-back factor in handicapping basketball for one basic reason – it works and has for years. While it alone does not guarantee wins, it remains one of the most successful and reliable elements in winning
There are three requirements to qualify as a bounce-back bet, including…

  1. A team must have lost its last game as a favorite.
  2. It must have the talent and ability to bunce back and win.
  3. It must be playing in a spot where the win is the most likely outcome.

Here are two strong bounce-back candidates for Saturday.

Louisville (21-4) at Syracuse (14-10) – Louisville lost its last game at Georgia Tech (12-13), 64-58, as a 6-point favorite.

UC-Santa Barbara (16-9) at CS-Fullerton – Santa Barbara lost its last game at Cal-Davis (11-15), 84-75, as a 3-point favorite.

CURRENT ODDS TO WIN NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP
From Las Vegas Sports Books

Gonzaga Bulldogs                 7-1
Kansas Jayhawks                  7-1
Duke Blue Devils                  8-1
Baylor Bears                       12-1
Dayton Flyers                     12-1
Seton Hall Pirates               12-1
Louisville Cardinals             14-1
Auburn Tigers                     16-1
Michigan State Spartans     16-1
Maryland Terrapins             20-1
San Diego Aztecs                20-1
WVU Mountaineers             20-1
Kentucky Wildcats               25-1
Arizona Wildcats                  30-1
Oregon Ducks                     30-1
Florida State Seminoles      40-1
Penn State Nittany Lions     40-1
Butler Bulldogs                   50-1
Iowa Hawkeyes                   50-1
LSU Tigers                          50-1

TEAMS STILL WORKING OVERTIME TO WIN THEIR CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

College conference tournaments are just three weeks away (the Horizon League begins its post season Tuesday, March 3) and many conference regular season championship are yet to be decided. Here is a partial list of teams, conference-by-conference, still battling to win titles. Needless to say most of these teams will be all-in every night they play, giving bettors at least a small edge.

While it is the winners of the conference tournaments that get each conference’s automatic invite to the NCAA, everyone is battling for a better seed in post-season play and an at-large bid to the big dance.

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE – Houston (10-2), Cincinnati (9-3), Tulsa (9-3)
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE – Louisville (12-2), Duke (11-2), Florida State (10-3)
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE – Dayton (11-0), Rhode Island 10-2).
BIG 12 CONFERENCE – Baylor (11-0), Kansas (10-1)
BIG TEN CONFERENCE – Maryland (10-3) Penn State (9-4).
COLONIAL CONFERENCE – Hofstra (10-3), Delaware (9-4)
CONFERENCE USA – North Texas (11-2), Western Kentucky (10-3)
HORIZON LEAGUE – Wright State (11-2), Northern Kentucky (10-3)
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE – Bowling Green (9-3), Akron (8-3)
OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE – Austin Peay (11-2), Murray State (11-2), E. Kentucky 10-3), Belmont (10-3)
PAC-12 CONFERENCE – Colorado (8-4), Oregon *8-4), Arizona State (7-4), Arizona (7-4)
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE – LSU (9-2), Auburn (9-2), Kentucky (9-2)
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE – East Tennessee State (11-2), Furman (11-2), NC-Greensboro (10-3)
SUMMIT CONFERENCE – North Dakota State (9-2), South Dakota State (9-2), South Dakota (9-3)

SATURDAY’S NEWSLETTER BEST BETS

Home Teams In CAPS – All Best Bets 5-Unit Plays

#3 KANSAS JAYHAWKS (21-3) by 7-8 over Oklahoma Sooners (16-8) – When these teams met a month ago in Norman, Kansas was a 4.5-point favorite and crushed Oklahoma, 66-52. It was a night on which the Sooners were ice-cold from the field, hitting just 30.6 from the floor. I do not expect that to happen twice in the same season and you can bet Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger – a true coaching genius – will come with a game plan that will keep this one close all the way and give the Sooners a chance to win it.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (15-9) by 4-5 over ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (16-8) – Arkansas got off to a blazing 14-2 start under new coach Eric Musselman but all at once seemed to fall apart and comes into this game riding a 3-game losing streak while losing four of its last five games and six of its last eight. It is my opinion the Razorbacks were never as good as they appeared as they ran up the score on every opponent they could. Mississippi State beat Arkansas, 77-70, as a 4.5-point underdog and, as poorly as the Razorbacks are playing right now, should complete the sweep in this one.

SAINT LOUIS BILLIKENS (17-7) by 11-12 over La Salle Explorers (11-12) – Saint Louis is much better than its record and is primed to play one of its best games of the season. When these teams met earlier in Philadelphia, the Billikens prevailed by a single point, 77-76, but I am looking for a dominating win this time. Saint Louis is in major bounce-back mode off back-to-back losses, at nationally ranked Dayton (22-2), 71-65, and at home against Duquesne, 82-68.

TCU HORNED FROGS (13-11) by 3-4 over Kansas State Wildcats (9-15) – TCU is having a disappointing season, failing to come close to living up to pre-season predictions, but it should get the job done against rebuilding Kansas State, a gritty team that comes to play every game. Kansas State has lost its last four games and six of its last seven but plays a style of basketball that should keep this one close. When these schools met in early January in Manhattan the Horned Frogs won by two points, 59-57, and I am looking for that scenario to repeat itself today.

Arizona Wildcats (17-7) by 10-11 over STANFORD CARDINAL (16-8) – Arizona is loaded with talent but has had an up-and-down season that is not easy to explain. When the Wildcats are good, you better get out of the way, a fact illustrated by their performances. They knocked off #16 Colorado, 75-54, in Tucson and showed their talent in two losses, at home against #2 Gonzaga, 84-80, and at #17 Oregon, 74-73. They come into this game off a Thursday night win at California, 68-52, and are meeting a Stanford team that began the season 14-2 but are riding a three-game losing streak and have gone 1-6 in their last seven games.

 

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